Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Challenge

Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for estimating predictive uncertainty; however these require significant modifica...

Microbial challenge tests and predictive modelling software for evaluating and improving food safety – A case study with Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat foods

Ng -z0s96. ASSESSING DAMPING UNCERTAINTY IN SPACE STRUCTURES WITH FUZZY SETS

NASA has been interested in the development of methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models. This interest stems from the use of mathematical models in evaluating the structural integrity of all spacecraft prior to flight. Space structures are often too large and too weak to be tested fully assembled in a ground test laboratory. The predictive accuracy of a model ...

Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Le challenge of identifying input and structural errors

Meaningful quantification of data and structural uncertainties in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling is a major scientific and engineering challenge. This paper focuses on the total predictive uncertainty and its decomposition into input and structural components under different inference scenarios. Several Bayesian inference schemes are investigated, differing in the treatment of rainfall and...

Estimating Predictive Variances with Kernel Ridge Regression

In many regression tasks, in addition to an accurate estimate of the conditional mean of the target distribution, an indication of the predictive uncertainty is also required. There are two principal sources of this uncertainty: the noise process contaminating the data and the uncertainty in estimating the model parameters based on a limited sample of training data. Both of them can be summaris...